By Margarita Antidze and Steve Gutterman | Reuters

TBILISI
(Reuters) - An opposition coalition led by a billionaire tycoon claimed
victory in a parliamentary election in Georgia and initial results
released on Tuesday put it ahead of President Mikheil Saakashvili's ruling party in the former Soviet republic.
Thousands of supporters of the Georgian Dream coalition
celebrated in the streets of the capital Tbilisi after the election on
Monday, sounding car horns and carrying blue party banners and
red-on-white national flags over their heads.
"I expect that we will get no less than 100 seats in the
new (150 seat) parliament," the coalition's leader, wealthy tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili, told a cheering crowd. "I have achieved what I have long been striving for."
But a tense stand-off loomed over the results of the poll,
which under Georgia's electoral system allocates 77 of the 150
parliament seats according to party lists and the other 73 according to
constituent victories.
With ballots from six percent polling stations counted under the
party list system, Georgian Dream had 56.1 percent and Saakashvili's United National Movement had 39.4 percent, the Central Election Commission said on its website.
But the UNM said it believed it had won at least 53 of the
73 seats allotted in elections tallied according to individual
constituencies, results of which had not yet been released.
"This means that the United National Movement will have a
majority in the new parliament," spokeswoman Chiora Taktakishvili said
in televised comments on Monday.
Any signs of instability in the Caucasus country of 4.5
million would worry the West because of its role as a conduit for
Caspian Sea energy supplies to Europe and its strategic location between
Russia, Iran, Turkey and central Asia.
Saakashvili says the Georgian Dream coalition would move
Georgia away from the West and back into Moscow's orbit, and has
suggested Ivanishvili is doing the bidding of the Kremlin after making
his money in Russia.
Ivanishvili, a former reclusive
who entered politics only a year ago, told Reuters he was confident
Georgian Dream candidates had won at least 50 of the individual races.
"A very interesting precedent has been set in which the
leadership has been replaced through elections," he said after exit
polls predicted Georgian Dream beat out the ruling party in the
party-list voting.
GEORGIAN DREAM SUPPORTERS CELEBRATE
Georgian Dream's strong showing was an indictment of
Saakashvili, who swept to the presidency in the bloodless Rose
Revolution of 2003 but led Georgia into a disastrous five-day war with
Russia over two breakaway regions in 2008.
Saakashvili cautioned that the results were not yet in, and the U.S.
ambassador earlier on Monday urged Georgians to "stay calm" until votes
were counted and any challenges addressed.
Saakashvili must step down after a presidential election
next year, when reforms weakening the head of state and giving more
power to parliament and the prime minister are to take effect.
If his party retains control of parliament, it may give him a
way to keep calling the shots. If not, Ivanishvili could become premier
and Georgia's dominant politician.
"Besides being a contest for parliament, it is also a
shadow leadership election," said Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus expert at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
In a televised address after polls closed, Saakashvili, 44,
said it appeared Georgian Dream had prevailed in the party-list voting
but his party had come out ahead in the individual races.
When parliament convenes, ruling party and opposition deputies
should "take their seats and start working in a joint democratic
process", he said. "We are all Georgian citizens, we should stand
together and work together."
But the exit polls
emboldened Georgian Dream supporters and could lead to increased
tensions if their strong showing is not matched by results in the
individual districts - an outcome that could stoke suspicions of
rigging.
TORTURE VIDEO
Tension
was already high after video footage of torture, beatings and sexual
assault of prison inmates led to street protests after it was aired on
two television channels opposed to Saakashvili about two weeks before
the election.
The footage undermined Saakashvili's image as a reformer who had imposed
the rule of law and rooted out corruption.
"I'm
voting against violence and abuse. How can I do otherwise after what we
have all seen on TV?" Natela Zhorzholiani, 68, said as she voted in
Tbilisi.
Ivanishvili has won votes by promising to tackle poverty and corruption,
blaming these problems on Saakashvili, although not everyone trusts him
to do better than the current president and Saakashvili portrays him as
open to Russian manipulation.
"I voted for peace
and stability," Georgy Ugrekhelidze, 76. "I want this government to
carry out what it has started."
Opponents accuse Saakashvili of monopolizing power,
curtailing democracy and suppressing dissent. He owes his rise to power
to street protests over claims of election fraud, but has damaged his
image by cracking down on opponents.
Police used teargas, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse protesters in Tbilisi in November 2007. Security forces again cracked down on protesters in 2010 after opponents occupied a central square.
Georgia's Central Election Commission said there were no
grave violations during the voting on Monday, but a confrontation did
erupt in the central town of Khashuri late Monday night after ballots
were counted.
Citing an observer, Transparency
International Georgia said armed men forced their way into two polling
places in Khashuri and, in one of them, a protocol that had shown
Georgian Dream winning more votes was replaced by one making UNM the
winner.
Opposition television channels showed footage of shouting crowds and
riot police they said fired teargas and rubber bullets. The Interior
Ministry said police were sent to guard polling stations and denied the
use of teargas or guns.